Analysts think that the control of the U.S. House could come down to just six races in California. Just a handful of voters will most likely decide the fate of Congress in 2025.
Four large PACs devoted to house races have said that they are planning on spending more than $73 million on ads in just the Golden State to assure Latino voters this year.
Current Election Status
The final stretch of the 2024 presidential election is officially on. With just 62 days until November 5, Republicans and Democrats have ramped up campaign efforts.
As it stands, Harris holds a narrow lead above Trump in six key battleground states while the former president remains popular with his die-hard MAGA supporters. Forecasters have tipped the scales only slightly towards Democrats for the house, but until every ballot is counted, anything could happen.
The Latino Vote
In California, Latinos make up one in four voters, making them one of the largest share of voters in the state, with even larger numbers in crucial districts.
Six key races in California could be all between either party in the House this coming year.
What Is a PAC?
A political action committee (PAC) is a tax-exempt organization that pools campaign contributions from members and donates them to specific candidates and races.
Today, PACs hugely influence the outcomes of elections by targeting ads and campaign efforts in specific places. For example, Los Angeles, which normally votes Democratic in the presidential primary, probably won’t get much attention from the Harris team. Instead, the PACs invested in her win will spend money in battleground areas or Republican-leaning districts.
What Is the Benefit of Controlling the House?
The U.S. House of Representatives has 435 members. It is primarily responsible for enacting laws that influence the lives of everyday Americans.
Currently, Republicans control 221 seats in Congress, and Democrats have 213. A bill can get passed through Congress if a simple majority (218 of 435) votes yes. Whoever is in control of the most seats has an easier time passing the bills aligned with their party and thus delivering on campaign promises.
A Close Race in Central Valley
In the 13th District in the Central Valley, there is a hotly contested rematch between First-term U.S. Rep. John Duarte (R) and former Democratic state lawmaker Adam Gray.
In 2022, the winner was decided by just a few hundred votes.
Another Important Rematch
Another key rematch in the state stands between longtime U.S. Rep. Ken Calvert (R) and former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D).
This battle will take place in the 41st District in the Inland Empire.
The Latino Vote Will Be Crucial
There are several other races that will most likely come down to the Latino vote as well. For example, a seat in the San Joaquin Valley is up for grabs that represents some of the most prominent Chicano farm worker movements in the state.
Thomas Holyoke, a poli-sci professor at California State University, Fresno, says that the turnout with Latinos will be crucial.
Many Latinos May Not Vote Blue
Although it’s presumed in the mind of many Americans that most Latinos, people of color, and immigrants immediately vote Democrat, the issue is much more complicated.
Currently, many farmers, recent immigrants, and Democratic-leaning Latino groups don’t have especially close ties with the Democratic party. They could very well be swayed by revamped campaign efforts by the Trump party.
Voters Are Conflicted
Holyoke says, “The main reason they have leaned Democratic” is because the party has been historically pro-immigrant, which can help themselves and their families.
However, there are a few key agriculture-related issues on the docket, such as access to water, which many see as the Republicans taking ownership of the issue. In recent months, voters have turned against Gov. Newsom for his mismanagement of water issues in the Central Valley.
California Is Harris’s Home State
Kamala Harris calls Oakland home and has worked for most of her career as a lawyer and politician in the state.
This deep connection could very well give her a leg up with voters, especially in her home of San Fransisco, where she previously held an ultra-lucrative fundraiser for private guests. She raked in roughly $12 million during a single dinner where plates cost as much as $500,000.
Republican Efforts in California
Knowing that California could become a battleground for the House, Republicans have ramped up their campaigning efforts in California.
Recently, Trump told television psychologist “Dr. Phil” McGraw that he could win California if Jesus Christ was counting the ballots. “If Jesus Christ came down and was the vote counter, I would win California, OK?” Trump said. “In other words, if we had an honest vote counter, a really honest vote counter — I do great with Hispanics, great, I mean at a level no Republican has ever done. But if we had an honest vote counter, I would win California.”
